Deadlock among the largest powers has created space that middle-sized states have been quick to occupy, particularly in trade rules, digital governance and climate finance.
These coalitions are issue-specific and deliberately shallow. Countries that disagree profoundly on security cooperate narrowly where interests align, then disband.
The approach produces agreements faster than universal forums, at the cost of coverage. Rules written by the willing bind only the willing.
For smaller states the calculation has changed: influence now comes from being useful in a coalition rather than from alignment with a single patron.
